Pinatubo 1991 (Swiss Cheese)
6 VEI
840+ died
1st layer → land use zoning
USAF Clark Base ignored zoning
2nd layer → prediction + early warning
USGS obliged to tell USAF NOT local people
3rd layer → evacuation
USAF + USGS didn’t evacuate locals until last minute (48hrs before eruption)
4th layer → emergency warning
Typhoon Yunya
2 story high mudflows (infrastructure destroyed)
emergency vehicles cannot access
E15, Iceland 2010 (HILP)
4 VEI
0 died
first eruption in 190 years
Impact on Air Movements
Why → ash plume generated spread as far as Northern Italy
grounded ½ European flights and 100,000+ flights cancelled
£1.8bil aviation revenue lost
disrupted global supply chains
bad - UK trade value = 25% airfreight
Japan’s Nissan plant stop production of the Cube as ran out of artificial sensor produced in Ireland
Impact on Perishable Goods
impacted producers of flowers, fruits and veg in some African countries (e.g., Kenya)
delays in transport = rotted
World Bank Estimated $65mil lost
Christchurch, NZ 2011 (Degg’s Model)
Disaster
7MMS (same as Haiti)
5km deep focus (shallow)
10sec duration
185 died
GDP (2011) - $168bil
Vulnerability - LOW
Governance = Good:
organised and funded
had an EDC so could fund immediate aid
education systems → all children aged 3+ learn what to do in emergency
fines for not carrying an emergency evacuation kit
BUT delayed rebuilding of CTV building (didn’t fit the building codes then present) meant it collapsed = where most (115) deaths occurred
swiss cheese (hole)
LEAD TO IMPROVEMENT (Build Back Better)
revised building codes and bulldozed old, risky buildings
e.g. EQ proof home built on South Island
heavy furniture fixed to walls/floor = can’t fall and injure people
homeowners use smartphones to monitor seismography
Tohoku, Japan 2011 (HILP) (Deggs/DRE)
Disaster
9.1 MMS (5th strongest globally)
20,000 died
GDP (2011) - $6.2tril
6 min duration
120,000 buildings collapsed
Frequency/Magnitude of Event - LOW
at most 4-5 EQs a year
Vulnerability - LOW
Governance = Good:
excellent high tech monitoring and prediction system (‘J-Alert’)
80 second warning allowing high-speed trains to stop and factories to shut down
seismographs detected p-waves on NE coast so text warnings to evacuate sent
ocean buoys detect sea level changes = tsunami prediction and warning
BUT estimated 1m (fine with 4m sea wall) → actually reached 40m in areas
education systems
annual Disaster Prevention Day (2mil regulars)
children practice EQ drills 4x a year
Wealthy + Developed:
Ranked 3rd globally for GDP in 2011
Means can heavily invest in warning systems, education, and aseismic building design
BUT SLIGHTLY INCREASED - Population is Aging:
23% 65+ in 2011
of the 16,000 that died in tsunami 56% were 65+ (disproportionate)
Capacity to Cope - VERY HIGH
strong governance
wealth and development
monitoring/prediction/warning systems
Haiti 2010 (Deggs/DRE)
Disaster
7 MMS (same as Christchurch)
250,000 died + 300,000 injured
35 second duration
GDP (2010) - $11.9bil
60% buildings in Port au Prince collapsed
1.5mil homeless
Frequency/Magnitude of the Event
Multi-hazard hotspot
2008 = 4 tropical storms in 1 month
EQs rare (last major 1942)
sits on complex plate margins including 2 conservative slip-strike faults directly below island
fault had been locked for 250 years = lots of energy
Vulnerability
Governance = WEAK (PAR Model)
lack of preparation of national AND local level
building safety codes violated (laws for steel reinforcements and concrete walls but local authorities bribed) + lack of quality infrastructure (86% Port au Prince slum conditions) = vulnerable to collapse
corruption
Poverty = HIGH
poorest country in western hemisphere → 70% on less than $2 per day
149/169 HDI (2010)
Environmental Factors = INCREASED VUL.
High deforestation (2% tree cover 2010) for charcoal fuel source = landslides occur more easily
Capacity of The Population to Cope = LOW
little to no education on what to do in emergency = poor local preparation
so poor that there was/is a lack of coherent emergency disaster plan
Haiti was still recovering from Tropical Storm Jeanne in 2004 and the 4 2008 hurricanes
Haiti 2010, Management (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)
BEFORE (modify the event)
Pre disaster - weak
(see Deggs/DRE card)
weak governance
high poverty
environmental factors
DURING (modify the loss)
Relief - ok
Dominican Republic first aid (water, food, heavy lifting machinery) + permitted crossing border to use their hospitals
only few days worth of food/water + medical care still limited
alright start for relief (hours to days)
Rehabilitation - poor
No emergency plan + loosing 100 UN personnel in EQ = many weeks until coordinated plan in place amongst supporting NGOs
Very difficult as only 1 part of airport operational + ports damaged = struggles in sending supplies for months
made worse by no emergency plan
Corruption meant only $580mil out of $6.04bil of funding from multilateral and bilateral donors directly to gov = harder to coordinate an appropriate response
AFTER (modify the vulnerability)
Reconstruction - overall poor
By July 2010 (occurred Jan) 98% rubble remained uncleared + 1.6mil still living in relief camps
Some aid money used to pay engineers to assess buildings (to be demolished, repaired or are safe)
World Bank wiped ½ debts + gave 5 year break in repaying other half
World Bank led community-driven projects including them rebuilding EQ resistant homes that follow building codes
BUT only in small number of areas + government didn’t keep to own promise of building disaster-proof buildings
Tohoku, Japan 2011 (HILP) (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)
BEFORE (modify the event)
Pre disaster - decent (good systems, disaster too great)
automatic warning systems immediately triggered (J-Alert)
televised, text, tsunami sirens
Strident building regulations proved successful in Tokyo → no major damage
Regular EQ drills = people know what to do
Defensive sea wall (4m) not tall enough in all areas (reached up to 40m)
DURING (modify the loss)
Relief - good
gov criticised for slow response
BUT within first 2 days 50,000 personnel from Japan’s self defence force, safety agencies and national police mobilised
Rehabilitation - good
2 months later 160,000 Japan’s self defence force and safety agencies helping continued relief + rehabilitation
After only 2 weeks Tohoku’s major highway reopened (due to planning = workers and reconstruction plans on standby)
The Shinkansen (bullet train) reopened by April
70,000 temporary homes built to house 300,000 people made homeless
2 months later an operation to clear NE coast started
est. cost £144bil to clear the 25mil tonnes of debris
AFTER (modify the vulnerability)
Reconstruction - criticised
took 11 months to establish a Reconstruction Agency (Kobe EQ took 4 months) + eventually (Feb 2012) set principles:
focus on local communities
accept disaster occurred and recovery needed
account for aging pop
difficult due to topography (mountainous)
hard to find good land to rebuild on
Montserrat 1997 (Deggs/DRE)
Disaster
VEI 3/4
19 died
Frequency/Magnitude of Event
volcano dormant 300+ years before eruption started 1995
Level of Vulnerability
poverty (50%)
low income for majority of pop, esp. for children
Many buildings and roads destroyed, including only hospital
Housing
temporary became permanent for many
housing shortages remain
Capacity of the Population to Cope
Links to UK helped response and reconstruction (evacuation, aid) = increased resilience
Montserrat 1997 (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)
BEFORE (modify the event)
Pre-disaster
British Overseas Territory (colonised 1600s) = BGS helped set up Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO) after initial steam eruptions in 1995
Prediction
gas analysis + slope deformation used
statistical models predict probability of eruption events
warning signs in 1995 included small EQs and ash
DURING (modify the loss)
Relief
large scale evacuation by British Navy (90% pop relocated)
made easier by small population (11,000)
disaster risk map + exclusion zones set up
extends from south coast
imposed due to large volcanic dome and potential pyroclastic activity
Rehabilitation
£41mil compensation/redevelopment money donated by UK and Montserrat gov
1998 → people granted full residency rights in the UK = can migrate if choose
AFTER (modify the vulnerability)
Reconstruction
tourism industry slow to recover (15 years) = high unemployment
UK gov invested £400mil to rebuild + stabilise economy
2013 → EU $55.2mil aid package to boost economic recovery
Sichuan 2008 (Deggs/DRE)
Disaster
7.9 MMS
69,000 died
4 million rural and urban homes collapsed
11,000 hospitals + clinics collapsed
5 million homeless
Frequency/Magnitude of Event
EQs common is Sichuan province, esp. in western mountains
Sichuan located on Longmenshan fault → collision of Indian and Eurasian plates triggered a thrust fault (1 plate pushes up and over)
Vulnerability
poor governance on local level = lack of preparedness
better governance on national level = relief and reconstruction more rapid as coordinated
many homes mudbrick = not resistant to EQs + even concrete reinforced homes collapsed near fault line
China’s HDI ranking 106th in 2008
Capacity of the Population to Cope
lack of local public awareness + education on what to do in an EQ
NEE → GDP ($4,600bil, 2008)
Sichuan 2008 (Park/Disaster Management Cycle)
BEFORE (modify the event)
Pre-Disaster
Poor local governance → repeatedly ignored scientist’s warnings of a catastrophic EQ for decades = not prepared
didn’t alter poorly built infrastructure (not EQ resistant), limit urban growth or conduct basic safety drills
Corrupt local gov officials accepted bribes to ignore building codes for schools
in Dujiangyan 900 students died
7444 schools collapsed, 5335 children died
DURING (modify the loss)
Relief
Chinese gov quickly deployed 130,000 soldiers to affected areas
delays: due to remote, rural villages being hard to reach (mountainous, sparsely populated) + lack of modern rescue equipment
20 helicopters assigned to relief in Wenchuan BUT cut off by landslides → so troops parachuted
sent 39,000 medical personnel
Rehabilitation
2 weeks after, $100mil donated to the red cross
banks wrote off debt owed by survivors with no insurance
teams from Japan, Russia and SK joined rescue efforts (e.g., freeing trapped survivors)
Foreign aid: World Bank initial $1.5mil grant through GFDRR
AFTER (modify the vulnerability)
Reconstruction
1mil temporary homes pledged to be built in following 3 years by Chinese gov → pledged $10mil rebuilding fund for this
99% of 19600 farmhouses destroyed were rebuilt within 2 years
216 transport projects under construction or completed
improved peoples’ lives and the region’s economy by being more resilient to future hazards (BBB)
Indonesia ‘Boxing Day’ Tsunami 2004
Physical Factors
Earthquake of magnitude 9.1 due to the slippage of the Sundra Megathrust fault (a destructive plate boundary between the Burma and Indo-Australian plates)
This caused the seabed to rise by 15m over 1500km
Removal of mangroves in many places (for tourism) removed natural protection from tsunamis
Banda Aceh had waves nearly 17m high
Social Factors and Impacts
228,000 deaths
There was a lack of tsunami warning so many coastal communities were taken by surprise
Due to a lack of tsunami education, many people went back onto exposed beaches due to the drawback effect - drownings
High population and tropical climate meant that diseases like cholera and dysentery spread quickly
5,500 shanty towns in Thailand alone - not disaster resistant and people are less likely to have insurance and be able to rebuild
Economic Factors and Impacts
Indonesia had a monitoring system which could have provided early warnings but the system lacked the necessary telephone connection to transmit the warning - Other countries e.g. Sri Lanka and India could have had a 2 hour warning
Many of the affected communities were dependant on the fishing industry - loss of income earners, fishing equipment and boats - damage to local economy
Infrastructure like fresh water supply was damaged and so farmers could not irrigate - the use of saltwater made land infertile
Environmental Impacts
Coastal ecosystems (e.g. mangroves, coral reefs, forests) destroyed by wave surge
Many ecosystems polluted by human and chemical waste in the floodwater
Response
US $14 billion dollars in aid
US provided aircraft for search and rescue, surveying and transportation of cargo for aid
Tsunami warning system was implemented in response
Build Back Better
built mounds of material, at the height of the largest possible tsunami, with shelters on top for people to evacuate to
San Andreas Fault, California USA
→ conservative fault
130 years overdue
U.S. Geological Survey previously predicted a 10% chance of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake in the next 30 years